Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund split the points the model doubted
The model gave the draw 23 percent before kickoff, and Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund finished level on 18 points each.
The Bundesliga's top two finished level on October 31. Borussia Dortmund 2, Bayern Munich 2. Neither side won and neither lost, and the margin was 0. Each team took 1 point from a game the home side was supposed to own. It was the round's result that went furthest against the model, one of 9 games in a round that began on October 30.
The model's last line before kickoff made Bayern Munich the clear favorite. It gave the home side a 62 percent win chance. It gave the draw 23 percent. It gave Borussia Dortmund a 15 percent win chance. The draw was the middle figure of the three and it is the one that came in. The model's share for what happened was 23 percent. That is a little under a quarter, and the favorite's 62 percent did not hold.
Going in, both sides carried strong recent results. Bayern Munich's last 5 games read WWTWW, which makes 13 points. Borussia Dortmund's last 5 games read WTTWW, which makes 11 points. Bayern Munich had 2 more points than Dortmund across that window, and that gap is the only visible tilt toward the home side. Both runs held 3 wins. Dortmund's held 2 draws against 1 for Bayern Munich.
The table said these were the two best teams in an 18-team league, and it said they were level. Bayern Munich sat 1st with 18 points and a record of 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. Borussia Dortmund sat 2nd with 18 points and the same record, 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. Neither had lost a game. The draw leaves the records as they were, with 1 more draw added to each column and nothing taken from either side.
So the model leaned on the home side and the table could not separate them. The 62 percent for Bayern Munich was a statement about a sheet of numbers that looked identical on points and on record. The result handed back the one outcome that kept them identical, at 18 points apiece going in and a shared 3 draws in the record. Each side has now drawn more than the model's 23 percent would suggest a draw deserved in this game. Bayern Munich hold the top place and Borussia Dortmund the next, and the results have left them where they were.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Written from the numbers listed below. Reviewed by Paul Koziol, editor. Corrections are shown on the piece. Editorial policy.