Hamburg SV win three straight and outrun the model's rating

The Bundesliga has a team whose results will not sit still next to its rating. Hamburg SV carry a model rating of 1381. That ranks 16th among the league's 18 teams. On the model's reading, this is a side in the lower reaches of the division, and the rating has not moved to meet the recent results.

The results say something else. Over the last 5 games Hamburg SV have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, which makes 9 points. The run reads LLWWW. They beat FC Cologne 2-1 at home, won 3-2 away at TSG Hoffenheim, then took VfB Stuttgart 1-0 at home. Then came two defeats on the road: 1-0 to SC Paderborn 07 and 3-1 to Eintracht Frankfurt, the most recent game. That is 1.8 points per game across the window.

Set the two side by side and the gap is wide. Hamburg SV are 5th of 18 on the points of their last 5 games and 16th in the model's ratings. Form sits 11 places better than the rating rank. The direction is plain: the results are running ahead of what the model thinks of the team. The numbers give no reason for it, and this column offers none.

The table is the more modest of the two views. In the table, Hamburg SV are 13th with 9 points from a record of 3 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses. Just above them, SC Paderborn 07 are 12th, also on 9 points. Just below, FC Cologne are 14th on 8 points. Those are tight margins. Hamburg SV have 9 points in the table and 9 points from the last 5 games alone, so the recent run accounts for every point they hold. Paderborn took 8 points from the same window, and Cologne took 5.

The next fixture is at home against Borussia Mönchengladbach on November 6. It arrives after a round that began October 30 and ended with Hamburg SV's loss at Frankfurt. The two losses that close the run came away from home, and this one is at home, where the last 5 games include 2 wins from 2. That is a note on the schedule, not a forecast. The rating and the results will each get another reading after it.