Wisconsin Badgers vs Maryland Terrapins prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerWisconsin 76%
- Projected scoreWisconsin 31, Maryland 20
- Model spreadWisconsin −11 total 51
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Wisconsin Badgers or Maryland Terrapins: the bandwagon
Axle 76–24Market 76–24
Wisconsin Badgers at Maryland Terrapins win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Wisconsin Badgers vs Maryland Terrapins live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Wisconsin Badgers vs Maryland Terrapins team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | WIS | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WIS– | MD– |
| Average win probability | WIS– | MD– |
| Longest scoring run | WIS– | MD– |
| Time leading | WIS– | MD– |
Wisconsin Badgers vs Maryland Terrapins model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MD win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 24% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 21% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 22% | — |
- Ratings
- MD 1331 · WIS 1546
- Home spread
- +11
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Wisconsin vs Maryland odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Badgers at 82%, Polymarket at 71% (11 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 76%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | WIS | MD | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 82% | 18% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 71% | 30% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 76% | 24% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Wisconsin Badgers vs Maryland Terrapins prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Badgers a 11-point favorite, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Terrapins 1331 (124th of 138), Badgers 1546 (54th). The Terrapins have won 0 of their last 5; the Badgers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Terrapins won 1, the Badgers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Wisconsin Badgers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Iowa Hawkeyes | L 0–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs USC Trojans | W 24–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCLA Bruins | L 7–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Michigan State Spartans | W 31–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Penn State Nittany Lions | W 24–20 | – | – | matchup |
Maryland Terrapins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Illinois Fighting Illini | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights | L 30–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ohio State Buckeyes | L 16–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | L 23–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 3–54 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland Terrapins at Wisconsin Badgers | 27–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| Maryland Terrapins at Wisconsin Badgers | 10–23 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Wisconsin Badgers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Maryland Terrapins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Badgers– 10th · L1
- Badgers rating1546 54th of 138, 7 games
- Terrapins– 17th · L6
- Terrapins rating1331 124th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $WIS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Wisconsin Badgers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 17th · streak L6
No stances yet today on $MD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Maryland Terrapins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Wisconsin Badgers at Maryland Terrapins
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Model: Wisconsin 76% to win. Projected score Wisconsin 31, Maryland 20; spread Wisconsin −11, total 51. Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 71% for Wisconsin. Wisconsin Badgers at Maryland Terrapins, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET.