San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
- Projected winnerBoise State 92%
- Projected scoreBoise State 40, San Diego State 17
- Model spreadBoise State −23.5 total 56.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
San Diego State Aztecs or Boise State Broncos: the bandwagon
Axle 8–92Market –
San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SDSU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SDSU– | BOIS– |
| Average win probability | SDSU– | BOIS– |
| Longest scoring run | SDSU– | BOIS– |
| Time leading | SDSU– | BOIS– |
San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos odds
Every stored line
| Stored | BOIS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | — |
- Ratings
- BOIS 1691 · SDSU 1412
- Home spread
- −23.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 23.5-point favorite at home, with a 92% chance to win. The model total is 56.5. Ratings: Broncos 1691 (13th of 138), Aztecs 1412 (97th). The Broncos have won 5 of their last 5; the Aztecs 3 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Broncos won 3, the Aztecs 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
San Diego State Aztecs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Washington State Cougars | W 26–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | L 49–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fresno State Bulldogs | W 26–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oregon State Beavers | L 14–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas State Bobcats | W 31–29 | – | – | matchup |
Boise State Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas State Bobcats | W 46–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | W 38–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | W 37–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Michigan Broncos | W 32–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs | 7–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos | 24–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs | 34–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos | 13–35 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
San Diego State Aztecs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Boise State Broncos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Aztecs– 5th · W1
- Aztecs rating1412 97th of 138, 8 games
- Broncos– 1st · W7
- Broncos rating1691 13th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SDSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Diego State Aztecs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W7
No stances yet today on $BOIS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Boise State Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos
Sign in to post a take on $SDSUBOIS261122: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Boise State 92% to win. Projected score Boise State 40, San Diego State 17; spread Boise State −23.5, total 56.5. San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos, Sat, Nov 21, 9:30 PM ET.