North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerUTSA 65%
- Projected scoreUTSA 34, North Texas 28
- Model spreadUTSA −6 total 61.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
North Texas Mean Green or UTSA Roadrunners: the bandwagon
Axle 35–65Market 44–56
North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UNT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UNT– | UTSA– |
| Average win probability | UNT– | UTSA– |
| Longest scoring run | UNT– | UTSA– |
| Time leading | UNT– | UTSA– |
North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UTSA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 65% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 66% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 67% | — |
- Ratings
- UTSA 1650 · UNT 1619
- Home spread
- −6
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
North Texas vs UTSA odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Roadrunners at 59%, Polymarket at 53% (6 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 65%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UNT | UTSA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 41% | 59% | ||
| Polymarket | 47% | 53% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 35% | 65% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Roadrunners a 6-point favorite at home, with a 65% chance to win. The model total is 61.5. Ratings: Roadrunners 1650 (22nd of 138), Mean Green 1619 (30th). The Roadrunners have won 5 of their last 5; the Mean Green 4 of their last 5. The two have met 5 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Roadrunners won 4, the Mean Green 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
North Texas Mean Green
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | W 48–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Navy Midshipmen | W 49–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte 49ers | W 50–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 45–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 35–49 | – | – | matchup |
UTSA Roadrunners
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tulane Green Wave | W 42–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Navy Midshipmen | W 38–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Florida Bulls | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rice Owls | W 16–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 59–45 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA Roadrunners at North Texas Mean Green | 17–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners | 27–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| UTSA Roadrunners at North Texas Mean Green | 37–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners | 27–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners | 27–31 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
North Texas Mean Green: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UTSA Roadrunners: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mean Green– 3rd · W5
- Mean Green rating1619 30th of 138, 7 games
- Roadrunners– 1st · W5
- Roadrunners rating1650 22nd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W5
No stances yet today on $UNT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Texas Mean Green bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W5
No stances yet today on $UTSA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UTSA Roadrunners bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners
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Model: UTSA 65% to win. Projected score UTSA 34, North Texas 28; spread UTSA −6, total 61.5. Kalshi 59%, Polymarket 53% for UTSA. North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners, Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM ET.