East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs Marshall Thundering Herd prediction, odds and picks, November 17, 2026
- Projected winnerMarshall 62%
- Projected scoreMarshall 75, East Tennessee State 71
- Model spreadMarshall −4.5 total 146
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
East Tennessee State Buccaneers or Marshall Thundering Herd: the bandwagon
Axle 38–62Market –
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Marshall Thundering Herd win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs Marshall Thundering Herd live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs Marshall Thundering Herd team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ETSU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ETSU– | MRSH– |
| Average win probability | ETSU– | MRSH– |
| Longest scoring run | ETSU– | MRSH– |
| Time leading | ETSU– | MRSH– |
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs Marshall Thundering Herd odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MRSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | — |
- Ratings
- MRSH 1505 · ETSU 1532
- Home spread
- −4.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs Marshall Thundering Herd prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Thundering Herd a 4.5-point favorite at home, with a 62% chance to win. The model total is 146. Ratings: Thundering Herd 1505 (169th of 361), Buccaneers 1532 (125th). The Thundering Herd are 0-0; the Buccaneers are 0-0. The Thundering Herd have won 2 of their last 5; the Buccaneers 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Arizona State Sun Devils | L 65–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Furman Paladins | L 61–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Carolina Catamounts | W 69–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs The Citadel Bulldogs | W 83–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mercer Bears | L 76–82 | – | – | matchup |
Marshall Thundering Herd
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Buffalo Bulls | W 92–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 78–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 82–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Old Dominion Monarchs | W 97–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | L 75–79 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
East Tennessee State Buccaneers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Marshall Thundering Herd: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Buccaneers0-0 3rd · -
- Buccaneers rating1532 125th of 361, 1 games
- Thundering Herd0-0 9th · -
- Thundering Herd rating1505 169th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak -
No stances yet today on $ETSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the East Tennessee State Buccaneers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak -
No stances yet today on $MRSHMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Marshall Thundering Herd bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Marshall Thundering Herd
Sign in to post a take on $ETSUMBBMRSHMBB261118: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Marshall 62% to win. Projected score Marshall 75, East Tennessee State 71; spread Marshall −4.5, total 146. East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Marshall Thundering Herd, Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET.