Mercer Bears vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction, odds and picks, November 15, 2026
- Projected winnerAlabama 88%
- Projected scoreAlabama 74, Mercer 57
- Model spreadAlabama −16.5 total 130.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Mercer Bears or Alabama Crimson Tide: the bandwagon
Axle 12–88Market –
Mercer Bears at Alabama Crimson Tide win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Mercer Bears vs Alabama Crimson Tide live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Mercer Bears vs Alabama Crimson Tide team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MER | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MER– | ALA– |
| Average win probability | MER– | ALA– |
| Longest scoring run | MER– | ALA– |
| Time leading | MER– | ALA– |
Mercer Bears vs Alabama Crimson Tide odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ALA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2:15 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 2:15 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:58 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:58 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:28 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:03 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:58 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:27 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:08 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 88% | — |
- Ratings
- ALA 1663 · MER 1454
- Home spread
- −16.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 2:15 PM ET · 2026-11-04 19:15 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Mercer Bears vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Crimson Tide a 16.5-point favorite at home, with a 88% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Crimson Tide 1663 (31st of 356), Bears 1454 (224th). The Crimson Tide are 0-0; the Bears are 0-0. The Crimson Tide have won 3 of their last 5; the Bears 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Crimson Tide won 1, the Bears 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Mercer Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Furman Paladins | L 45–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chattanooga Mocs | W 68–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers | L 51–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Furman Paladins | W 80–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wofford Terriers | L 58–72 | – | – | matchup |
Alabama Crimson Tide
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 68–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rhode Island Rams | W 68–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Longhorns | L 60–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tennessee Lady Volunteers | W 76–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Missouri Tigers | W 65–48 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide at Mercer Bears | 88–52 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Mercer Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Alabama Crimson Tide: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bears0-0 7th · -
- Bears rating1454 224th of 356, 0 games
- Crimson Tide0-0 5th · -
- Crimson Tide rating1663 31st of 356, 0 games
Mercer Bears 0-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak -
No stances yet today on $MERWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mercer Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak -
No stances yet today on $ALAWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama Crimson Tide bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Alabama 88% to win. Projected score Alabama 74, Mercer 57; spread Alabama −16.5, total 130.5. Mercer Bears at Alabama Crimson Tide, Sun, Nov 15, 3:00 PM ET.