Seattle Reign FC vs Gotham FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerGotham FC 57%
- Projected scoreGotham FC 1.7, Seattle Reign FC 0.8
- Model spreadGotham FC −1 total 2.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Seattle Reign FC or Gotham FC: the bandwagon
Axle 22–57Market 19–57
Seattle Reign FC at Gotham FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Seattle Reign FC vs Gotham FC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Seattle Reign FC vs Gotham FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SEA | GFC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA– | GFC– |
| Average win probability | SEA– | GFC– |
| Longest scoring run | SEA– | GFC– |
| Time leading | SEA– | GFC– |
Seattle Reign FC vs Gotham FC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | GFC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | — |
- Ratings
- GFC 1608 · SEA 1513
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Women's Soccer League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Seattle Reign FC vs Gotham FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NWSL marketKalshi prices Gotham FC at 57%, Polymarket at 56% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SEA | Draw | GFC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 19% | 24% | 57% | ||
| Polymarket | 20% | 25% | 56% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 22% | 20% | 57% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Seattle Reign FC vs Gotham FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Gotham FC a 1-point favorite at home, with a 57% chance to win and a 20% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Gotham FC 1608 (1st of 16), Seattle Reign FC 1513 (7th). The Gotham FC are 17-5-7; the Seattle Reign FC are 14-11-5. The Gotham FC have won 3 of their last 5; the Seattle Reign FC 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Gotham FC won 3, the Seattle Reign FC 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Seattle Reign FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Orlando Pride | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Royals | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Stars FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Carolina Courage | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Legacy FC | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Gotham FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Royals | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Pride | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Spirit | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Angel City FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Stars FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Reign FC at Gotham FC | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Gotham FC at Seattle Reign FC | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Reign FC at Gotham FC | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Gotham FC at Seattle Reign FC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Gotham FC at Seattle Reign FC | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Reign FC at Gotham FC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Seattle Reign FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Gotham FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Seattle Reign FC14-11-5 8th
- Seattle Reign FC rating1513 7th of 16, 30 games
- Gotham FC17-5-7 1st
- Gotham FC rating1608 1st of 16, 30 games
Seattle Reign FC 14-11-5
National Women's Soccer League · 8th
No stances yet today on $REIGN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Seattle Reign FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Gotham FC 17-5-7
National Women's Soccer League · 1st
No stances yet today on $GOTHAM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Gotham FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Gotham FC 57% to win, draw 20%. Projected score Gotham FC 1.7, Seattle Reign FC 0.8; spread Gotham FC −1, total 2.5. Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 56% for Gotham FC. Seattle Reign FC at Gotham FC, Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 PM ET.