Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Hurricanes at Lightning: Bandwagon's model makes the Hurricanes a 53% favorite (even).
Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Hurricanes a 53% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Hurricanes win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 53%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Axle has the Hurricanes at 53%, Polymarket at 47%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
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Why Axle has the Hurricanes
All NHL ratings| CAR | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1612 1st of 32 | 1569 2nd of 32 |
| Record | 15-3-2 | 13-4-2 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W3 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | TB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 12:18 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 10:48 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:53 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:43 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 2:52 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 5:04 AM ET | 47% | — |
Hurricanes vs Lightning odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Hurricanes at 47%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 53%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CAR | TB | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 47% | 53% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 53% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hurricanes the favorite, with a 53% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 7. Ratings: Lightning 1569 (2nd of 32), Hurricanes 1612 (1st). The Lightning are 13-4-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Hurricanes are 15-3-2 in the Metropolitan Division. The Lightning have won 4 of their last 5; the Hurricanes 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lightning won 3, the Hurricanes 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Carolina Hurricanes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Seattle Kraken | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Blackhawks | W 9–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Islanders | W 5–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Winnipeg Jets | W 7–0 | – | – | matchup |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Columbus Blue Jackets | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Sabres | W 8–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Winnipeg Jets | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Wild | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Blackhawks | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning | 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes | 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning | 4–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning | 5–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes | 1–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Carolina Hurricanes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Tampa Bay Lightning: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hurricanes15-3-2 Metropolitan Division, 1st · W3
- Hurricanes rating1612 1st of 32, 20 games
- Lightning13-4-2 Atlantic Division, 1st · W2
- Lightning rating1569 2nd of 32, 19 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Carolina Hurricanes 15-3-2
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $HURRICANES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Carolina Hurricanes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Tampa Bay Lightning 13-4-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 1st · streak W2
No stances yet today on $LIGHTNING: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Lightning bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.