New York City FC were the model's clear favorite and still drew
The model gave the draw 21 percent, and CF Montréal 1, New York City FC 1 is how it finished between the 21st and 29th sides in the table.
Major League Soccer's model had a clear favorite in this fixture, and it was New York City FC. Its last line before kickoff gave the home side a 63 percent win chance, gave CF Montréal 16 percent, and gave the draw 21 percent. The model saw a home win as by far the likeliest outcome. The draw was the middle figure of the three, but it sat well behind the favorite, and it is the one that came in.
The final was CF Montréal 1, New York City FC 1, on October 31, one of 15 games in the round. Neither side won and neither lost, so the margin was 0. The model gave that result 21 percent, and the match landed on it anyway. New York City FC were at home and CF Montréal were the visitors, and each side left with a single point. A draw is a result, and it counts in both columns.
Going in, the last 5 games showed two sides in poor run, one a little less poor than the other. New York City FC's last 5 read W, T, T, L, L, which makes 5 points from a win, two draws and two losses. The run was ending on defeats. CF Montréal's last 5 read L, L, T, L, L, which makes 1 point from one draw and four losses. The home side held 5 points to the visitors' 1 over that stretch, so the form gap was wide, and the model's line followed it. The match finished level all the same.
The table had New York City FC in 21st place out of 30 teams, with 39 points from 9 wins, 12 draws and 12 losses. That is a record with more draws than wins and as many losses as draws. CF Montréal sat 29th out of 30 with 26 points, from 6 wins, 8 draws and 19 losses. Only one team in the league stood below them. The visitors carry 19 losses, the heaviest column on their page, and a point from this match changes that picture only a little.
The draw column runs through this one. New York City FC came in with 12 draws, the largest figure in their record, so a level score sits comfortably inside their season even where it sat outside the model's favored line. CF Montréal came in with 8 draws and now have one more. The model's 63 percent for a home win was the biggest number it set, and the 21 percent it gave the draw was the one that happened. The match page is at the matchup. The teams are New York City FC and CF Montréal.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Written from the numbers listed below. Reviewed by Paul Koziol, editor. Corrections are shown on the piece. Editorial policy.