Minnesota United FC string together results the table ignores
Minnesota United FC is 26th of 30 in Major League Soccer and 8th on the points of its last 5 games, with no loss in that run.
Major League Soccer has a club whose recent results and whose table position tell two different stories, and Minnesota United FC is it. The table puts the club 26th of 30. The last 5 games put it 8th of 30 on points. That is 18 places better than its table position. The form points up, and the table has not caught up with it. The rest of this piece lays out both sides and leaves the gap as it is.
The last 5 results read W, T, W, T, T, which is 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, for 9 points. That is 1.8 points per game. Minnesota beat Sporting Kansas City 3-1 at home and drew 0-0 away at Houston Dynamo FC. They beat St. Louis CITY SC 3-2 at home, drew 2-2 away at the Colorado Rapids, and drew 2-2 at home with Houston Dynamo FC. Not one of the 5 was a loss. Three of them were draws, and a draw is a point on the board.
The season record is a different shape. Minnesota United FC has 9 wins, 11 draws and 12 losses, for 38 points, and sits 26th among 30 teams. The club just above, D.C. United, is 25th with 33 points. Below, Atlanta United FC is 27th with 30 points. Those neighbors earned 3 points each over the same last 5 games. Minnesota earned 9. The run has lifted the club clear of them in form, though the full-season points are what the table counts.
The model sits between the two readings. It rates Minnesota United FC at 1475, which ranks 19th of 30 teams. That is better than the club's table place of 26th and well short of its form rank of 8th. The model weighs more than the last 5 games, and its number reflects that. Read together, the three ranks of 8th, 19th and 26th show a club the table rates lowest, the recent results rate highest, and the model puts in the middle.
The next fixture is at home against the San Jose Earthquakes on November 7. The data holds nothing more on that match than the date and the venue, and this piece adds nothing to it. Minnesota United FC will arrive with 38 points, a 26th place in the table and a run of 5 games without a loss behind it.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Written from the numbers listed below. Reviewed by Paul Koziol, editor. Corrections are shown on the piece. Editorial policy.