Illinois Fighting Illini vs Duke Blue Devils prediction, odds and picks, November 17, 2026
- Projected winnerDuke 74%
- Projected scoreDuke 77, Illinois 69
- Model spreadDuke −8 total 146
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Illinois Fighting Illini or Duke Blue Devils: the bandwagon
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Axle 26–74Market –
Illinois Fighting Illini at Duke Blue Devils win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Duke Blue Devils live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Duke Blue Devils team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ILL | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ILL– | DUKE– |
| Average win probability | ILL– | DUKE– |
| Longest scoring run | ILL– | DUKE– |
| Time leading | ILL– | DUKE– |
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Duke Blue Devils odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DUKE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | — |
- Ratings
- DUKE 1766 · ILL 1699
- Home spread
- −8
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Duke Blue Devils prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Blue Devils a 8-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 146. Ratings: Blue Devils 1766 (2nd of 361), Fighting Illini 1699 (9th). The Blue Devils are 0-0; the Fighting Illini are 0-0. The Blue Devils have won 4 of their last 5; the Fighting Illini 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Blue Devils won 1, the Fighting Illini 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | W 120–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 62–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | W 71–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Cougars | W 65–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VCU Rams | W 76–55 | – | – | matchup |
Duke Blue Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Army Black Knights | W 84–50 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UConn Huskies | L 72–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. John's Red Storm | W 80–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs TCU Horned Frogs | W 81–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Siena Saints | W 71–65 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini | 110–67 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Illinois Fighting Illini: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Duke Blue Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Fighting Illini0-0 1st · -
- Fighting Illini rating1699 9th of 361, 1 games
- Blue Devils0-0 5th · -
- Blue Devils rating1766 2nd of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak -
No stances yet today on $ILLMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Illinois Fighting Illini bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Duke Blue Devils 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak -
No stances yet today on $DUKEMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Duke Blue Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Duke 74% to win. Projected score Duke 77, Illinois 69; spread Duke −8, total 146. Illinois Fighting Illini at Duke Blue Devils, Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET.