Ball State Cardinals vs Florida State Seminoles prediction, odds and picks, November 17, 2026
- Projected winnerFlorida State 82%
- Projected scoreFlorida State 79, Ball State 68
- Model spreadFlorida State −11 total 146.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Ball State Cardinals or Florida State Seminoles: the bandwagon
Axle 18–82Market –
Ball State Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Ball State Cardinals vs Florida State Seminoles live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Ball State Cardinals vs Florida State Seminoles team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | BALL | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BALL– | FSU– |
| Average win probability | BALL– | FSU– |
| Longest scoring run | BALL– | FSU– |
| Time leading | BALL– | FSU– |
Ball State Cardinals vs Florida State Seminoles odds
Every stored line
| Stored | FSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | — |
- Ratings
- FSU 1568 · BALL 1424
- Home spread
- −11
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Ball State Cardinals vs Florida State Seminoles prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Seminoles a 11-point favorite at home, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 146.5. Ratings: Seminoles 1568 (71st of 361), Cardinals 1424 (287th). The Seminoles are 0-0; the Cardinals are 0-0. The Seminoles have won 3 of their last 5; the Cardinals 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Ball State Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia Southern Eagles | L 55–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Central Michigan Chippewas | W 85–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Michigan Broncos | W 74–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northern Illinois Huskies | W 79–43 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | W 74–73 | – | – | matchup |
Florida State Seminoles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Florida State Seminoles | L 69–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Duke Blue Devils | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs California Golden Bears | W 95–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SMU Mustangs | W 91–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Panthers | W 75–74 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Ball State Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Florida State Seminoles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cardinals0-0 2nd · -
- Cardinals rating1424 287th of 361, 1 games
- Seminoles0-0 6th · -
- Seminoles rating1568 71st of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak -
No stances yet today on $BALLMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ball State Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak -
No stances yet today on $FSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida State Seminoles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Florida State 82% to win. Projected score Florida State 79, Ball State 68; spread Florida State −11, total 146.5. Ball State Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles, Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET.