Alabama State Hornets vs UC Davis Aggies prediction, odds and picks, November 17, 2026
- Projected winnerUC Davis 77%
- Projected scoreUC Davis 78, Alabama State 69
- Model spreadUC Davis −9.5 total 147.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Alabama State Hornets or UC Davis Aggies: the bandwagon
Axle 23–77Market –
Alabama State Hornets at UC Davis Aggies win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Alabama State Hornets vs UC Davis Aggies live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Alabama State Hornets vs UC Davis Aggies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ALST | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ALST– | UCD– |
| Average win probability | ALST– | UCD– |
| Longest scoring run | ALST– | UCD– |
| Time leading | ALST– | UCD– |
Alabama State Hornets vs UC Davis Aggies odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UCD win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 77% | — |
- Ratings
- UCD 1490 · ALST 1389
- Home spread
- −9.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Alabama State Hornets vs UC Davis Aggies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aggies a 9.5-point favorite at home, with a 77% chance to win. The model total is 147.5. Ratings: Aggies 1490 (193rd of 361), Hornets 1389 (332nd). The Aggies are 0-0; the Hornets are 0-0. The Aggies have won 2 of their last 5; the Hornets 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Alabama State Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Texas A&M Aggies | L 66–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alcorn State Braves | L 65–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Grambling Tigers | L 63–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Jaguars | L 64–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Alabama A&M Bulldogs | W 89–88 | – | – | matchup |
UC Davis Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs North Alabama Lions | L 75–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cal State Fullerton Titans | L 70–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | W 79–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC Irvine Anteaters | L 69–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Long Beach State Beach | W 76–70 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Alabama State Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UC Davis Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hornets0-0 3rd · -
- Hornets rating1389 332nd of 361, 1 games
- Aggies0-0 7th · -
- Aggies rating1490 193rd of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak -
No stances yet today on $ALSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama State Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
UC Davis Aggies 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak -
No stances yet today on $UCDMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UC Davis Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: UC Davis 77% to win. Projected score UC Davis 78, Alabama State 69; spread UC Davis −9.5, total 147.5. Alabama State Hornets at UC Davis Aggies, Tue, Nov 17, 9:00 PM ET.