Futures Hedge Calculator
Futures ticket in the final? See the opponent bet that locks in profit.
- At a 50% hedge ($270.83): your future wins
- $929.17
- At a 50% hedge: the opponent wins
- $279.17
- Without a hedge: your future wins
- $1,200.00
- Without a hedge: it loses
- −$100.00
| Hedge | Bet | Future wins | Opponent wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $0.00 | $1,200.00 | −$100.00 |
| 25% | $135.42 | $1,064.58 | $89.58 |
| 50% | $270.83 | $929.17 | $279.17 |
| 75% | $406.25 | $793.75 | $468.75 |
| 100% | $541.67 | $658.33 | $658.33 |
Results are net of the original stake and the hedge. A full hedge returns the same either way; a partial hedge trades some of the guaranteed profit for upside.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the futures Hedge Calculator works
A futures bet is placed long before its outcome is known. Once your team reaches the final you can bet on the opponent. The full hedge is stake × futures decimal odds ÷ opponent decimal odds, which returns the same whichever side wins.
The table shows the net result of hedging 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100% of that amount. Hedging less keeps more of the futures payout if you win and loses more if you do not; the result is net of the original stake and of the hedge.
A hedge changes your risk, not the expected value of the position: if the opponent's price is fair the average result is unchanged. If it carries a margin you pay that margin for the certainty.
Futures Hedge Calculator example
You enter
- Future stake
- $100
- Odds when you bought
- +1200
- Opponent's odds now
- +140
- Share of the full hedge
- 50%
- Odds format
- American (−110)
You get
- At a 50% hedge ($270.83): your future wins
- $929.17
- At a 50% hedge: the opponent wins
- $279.17
- Without a hedge: your future wins
- $1,200.00
- Without a hedge: it loses
- −$100.00
| Hedge | Bet | Future wins | Opponent wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $0.00 | $1,200.00 | −$100.00 |
| 25% | $135.42 | $1,064.58 | $89.58 |
| 50% | $270.83 | $929.17 | $279.17 |
| 75% | $406.25 | $793.75 | $468.75 |
| 100% | $541.67 | $658.33 | $658.33 |
100 on a future at +1200 returns 1,300. With the opponent at +140 the full hedge is 541.67 and locks in 658.33 either way. At a 50% hedge (270.83) you net 929.17 if your future wins and 279.17 if the opponent does.
Futures Hedge Calculator questions
When should I hedge a futures bet?
It is a personal risk choice. Hedging makes sense when the locked amount matters more to you than the extra expected upside.
How do I calculate a futures hedge?
Hedge stake = original stake × original decimal odds ÷ opponent decimal odds.
Does hedging change expected value?
At a fair opponent price it does not. At a marginal price you pay the margin.
What if there are more than two sides left?
Use the Hedge Calculator for one opposing side at a time; with several remaining outcomes the stake splits like an arbitrage.
Related calculators
Hedge Calculator
How much to bet on the other side of an open bet to lock in the same result either way.
Arbitrage Calculator
Two- and three-way arbitrage: the stake split that locks in the same return, and the margin.
Expected Value Calculator
The average result of a bet if your win probability is right, and the edge over the price.
Live on Bandwagon
Futures hedge calculator: enter your futures stake and odds and the opponent's price to see the full hedge, the guaranteed profit and a partial hedge table.