USC Trojans beat UNLV Lady Rebels 100-68 in the final, a 32-point margin that favors the away side. The model had UNLV at 42% to win before tip, and the crowd cast no picks on this one.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Cox Pavilion · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
USC Trojans vs UNLV Lady Rebels: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreUSC 100, UNLV 68 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerUSC 58%
- Model spreadUNLV −0.5 total 130.5
- Margin32
- Total168 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
USC Trojans or UNLV Lady Rebels: the bandwagon
Axle 58–42Market –
FinalPregame: UNLV 42%Baseline: UNLV 10.5% (−31.6)Big swing: 15.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 29 | 23 | 31 | 17 | 100 |
| UNLV | 15 | 24 | 10 | 19 | 68 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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USC Trojans at UNLV Lady Rebels win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for UNLV over the last 5:00
Big swing15.4 ptstoward USC at 8:33 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineUNLV 10.5%game average, −31.6 points from the pregame 42.0%
USC Trojans vs UNLV Lady Rebels live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | USC | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | USC40/68 | UNLV22/63 |
| 3-pointers | USC8/22 | UNLV7/20 |
| Free throws | USC12/19 | UNLV17/24 |
| Rebounds | USC35 | UNLV40 |
| Assists | USC17 | UNLV11 |
| Turnovers | USC16 | UNLV24 |
| Steals | USC13 | UNLV4 |
| Blocks | USC8 | UNLV1 |
| Points in the paint | USC52 | UNLV24 |
| Fast-break points | USC16 | UNLV3 |
| Fouls | USC21 | UNLV16 |
| Largest lead | USC42 | UNLV2 |
USC Trojans vs UNLV Lady Rebels team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | USC | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | USC100 | UNLV68 |
| Average win probability | USC90% | UNLV10% |
| Longest scoring run | USC+13 | UNLV+8 |
| Time leading | USC35:31 | UNLV1:33 |
USC Trojans vs UNLV Lady Rebels odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET
Trojans58%
Win chanceLady Rebels42%
SpreadUNLV −0.5closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline−138away / +138homeaway / home
Line movementUNLV win chance, 13 stored lines
−8 pts for UNLV between Oct 29 and Nov 2
55%24%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | UNLV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:20 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 12:31 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 42% | +12 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 30% | −20 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- UNLV 1596 · USC 1648
- Home spread
- −0.5 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET · 2026-11-02 21:58 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: USC Trojans 100, UNLV Lady Rebels 68. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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TrojansLady Rebels
Neutrals only–
TrojansLady Rebels
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Lady Rebels–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
USC Trojans vs UNLV Lady Rebels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Trojans the favorite, with a 58% chance to win; its spread is Lady Rebels −0.5. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Lady Rebels 1570 (101st of 356), Trojans 1674 (26th). The Lady Rebels are 0-1; the Trojans are 1-0. The Lady Rebels have won 3 of their last 5; the Trojans 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
USC Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UNLV Lady Rebels | W 100–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Carolina Gamecocks | L 61–101 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Clemson Tigers | W 71–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | L 64–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 50–73 | – | – | matchup |
UNLV Lady Rebels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs USC Trojans | L 68–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado State Rams | L 59–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fresno State Bulldogs | W 79–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boise State Broncos | W 76–47 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | W 68–54 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
USC Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UNLV Lady Rebels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Trojans1-0 3rd · W1
- Trojans rating1674 26th of 356, 1 games
- Lady Rebels0-1 4th · L1
- Lady Rebels rating1570 101st of 356, 1 games
USC Trojans 1-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 3rd · streak W1
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UNLV Lady Rebels 0-1
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak L1
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