UT Arlington Mavericks open at home against Sacramento State Hornets with the score tied 0-0 at the first-quarter start. The model gives the Mavericks a 52% chance, a narrow edge, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · College Park Center · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Sacramento State Hornets vs UT Arlington Mavericks: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreSacramento State 67, UT Arlington 61 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerUT Arlington 52%
- Pregame Projected scoreUT Arlington 67, Sacramento State 64
- Model spreadUT Arlington −3.5 total 130.5
- Margin6 projected 3.3
- Total128 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Sacramento State Hornets or UT Arlington Mavericks: the bandwagon
Axle 48–52Market –
FinalPregame: UTA 52%Baseline: UTA 29.6% (−22.7)Big swing: 17.1 ptsClutch window: 8:50
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 15 | 22 | 14 | 16 | 67 |
| UTA | 14 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 61 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Sacramento State Hornets at UT Arlington Mavericks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to SAC−23.4 points for UTA over the last 5:00
Big swing17.1 ptstoward SAC at 20:00 of game time
Clutch window8:50within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineUTA 29.6%game average, −22.7 points from the pregame 52.4%
Sacramento State Hornets vs UT Arlington Mavericks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | SAC | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | SAC21/47 | UTA20/60 |
| 3-pointers | SAC3/17 | UTA6/16 |
| Free throws | SAC22/27 | UTA15/25 |
| Rebounds | SAC38 | UTA34 |
| Assists | SAC11 | UTA11 |
| Turnovers | SAC22 | UTA16 |
| Steals | SAC8 | UTA13 |
| Blocks | SAC4 | UTA2 |
| Points in the paint | SAC32 | UTA20 |
| Fast-break points | SAC6 | UTA3 |
| Fouls | SAC23 | UTA28 |
| Largest lead | SAC14 | UTA2 |
Sacramento State Hornets vs UT Arlington Mavericks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | SAC | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SAC67 | UTA61 |
| Average win probability | SAC70% | UTA30% |
| Longest scoring run | SAC+6 | UTA+3 |
| Time leading | SAC37:56 | UTA0:38 |
Sacramento State Hornets vs UT Arlington Mavericks odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated 18 h ago
Hornets48%
Win chanceMavericks52%
SpreadUTA −3.5closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+110away / −110homeaway / home
Line movementUTA win chance, 22 stored lines
−11 pts for UTA between Oct 29 and Nov 3
69%44%
Oct 29Nov 1Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | UTA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 52% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 49% | −14 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- UTA 1422 · SAC 1478
- Home spread
- −3.5
- Stored
- Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET · 2026-11-04 02:38 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Sacramento State Hornets 67, UT Arlington Mavericks 61. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
HornetsMavericks
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HornetsMavericks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Mavericks–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Sacramento State Hornets vs UT Arlington Mavericks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mavericks a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 52% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Mavericks 1407 (269th of 356), Hornets 1493 (183rd). The Mavericks are 0-0; the Hornets are 0-0. The Mavericks have won 2 of their last 5; the Hornets 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Sacramento State Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UT Arlington Mavericks | W 67–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Idaho Vandals | L 51–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Idaho State Bengals | W 62–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Idaho State Bengals | W 85–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montana State Bobcats | L 54–61 | – | – | matchup |
UT Arlington Mavericks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | L 61–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Abilene Christian Wildcats | L 50–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Southern Utah Thunderbirds | W 70–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Tech Trailblazers | W 77–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Abilene Christian Wildcats | L 57–72 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Sacramento State Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UT Arlington Mavericks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hornets0-0 7th · -
- Hornets rating1493 183rd of 356, 1 games
- Mavericks0-0 8th · -
- Mavericks rating1407 269th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SACWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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No stances yet today on $SACWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sacramento State Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 8th · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UTAWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UTAWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UTAWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UTAWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UT Arlington Mavericks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sacramento State Hornets at UT Arlington Mavericks
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Final: Sacramento State 67, UT Arlington 61. Bandwagon's model had the UT Arlington at 52% and projected UT Arlington 67, Sacramento State 64; spread UT Arlington −3.5, total 130.5.