Montana State Bobcats vs UNLV Lady Rebels prediction, odds and picks, November 15, 2026
- Projected winnerUNLV 54%
- Projected scoreUNLV 67, Montana State 63
- Model spreadUNLV −3.5 total 130.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Montana State Bobcats or UNLV Lady Rebels: the bandwagon
Axle 46–54Market –
Montana State Bobcats at UNLV Lady Rebels win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Montana State Bobcats vs UNLV Lady Rebels live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Montana State Bobcats vs UNLV Lady Rebels team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MTST | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTST– | UNLV– |
| Average win probability | MTST– | UNLV– |
| Longest scoring run | MTST– | UNLV– |
| Time leading | MTST– | UNLV– |
Montana State Bobcats vs UNLV Lady Rebels odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UNLV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:28 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:36 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:13 PM ET | 54% | −4 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:11 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 12:31 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | — |
- Ratings
- UNLV 1570 · MTST 1625
- Home spread
- −3.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Montana State Bobcats vs UNLV Lady Rebels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lady Rebels a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Lady Rebels 1570 (101st of 356), Bobcats 1625 (59th). The Lady Rebels are 0-1; the Bobcats are 1-0. The Lady Rebels have won 3 of their last 5; the Bobcats 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Lady Rebels won 0, the Bobcats 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Montana State Bobcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at South Dakota Coyotes | L 56–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Pilots | W 72–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Francisco Dons | W 69–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Idaho Vandals | L 57–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eastern Washington Eagles | W 79–77 | – | – | matchup |
UNLV Lady Rebels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs USC Trojans | L 68–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado State Rams | L 59–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fresno State Bulldogs | W 79–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boise State Broncos | W 76–47 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | W 68–54 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV Lady Rebels at Montana State Bobcats | 81–94 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Montana State Bobcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UNLV Lady Rebels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bobcats1-0 2nd · W1
- Bobcats rating1625 59th of 356, 0 games
- Lady Rebels0-1 4th · L1
- Lady Rebels rating1570 101st of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MTSTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Montana State Bobcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
UNLV Lady Rebels 0-1
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UNLVWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UNLV Lady Rebels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: UNLV 54% to win. Projected score UNLV 67, Montana State 63; spread UNLV −3.5, total 130.5. Montana State Bobcats at UNLV Lady Rebels, Sun, Nov 15, 4:00 PM ET.