Auburn Tigers lead Alabama State Lady Hornets 4-2 with 8:24 left in the 1st period. The model gives the Tigers a 74% chance at home, and no crowd picks are in yet. Jordan Reyes
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Neville Arena · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Alabama State Lady Hornets vs Auburn Tigers: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreAlabama State 35, Auburn 84 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerAuburn 74%
- Pregame Projected scoreAuburn 70, Alabama State 60
- Model spreadAuburn −9.5 total 130.5
- Margin49 projected 9.7
- Total119 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Alabama State Lady Hornets or Auburn Tigers: the bandwagon
Axle 26–74Market –
FinalPregame: AUB 74%Baseline: AUB 92.5% (+18.8)Big swing: 18.0 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALST | 16 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 35 |
| AUB | 15 | 29 | 21 | 19 | 84 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Alabama State Lady Hornets at Auburn Tigers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for AUB over the last 5:00
Big swing18.0 ptstoward AUB at 12:37 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineAUB 92.5%game average, +18.8 points from the pregame 73.7%
Alabama State Lady Hornets vs Auburn Tigers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ALST | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | ALST12/50 | AUB25/51 |
| 3-pointers | ALST3/17 | AUB8/21 |
| Free throws | ALST8/14 | AUB26/39 |
| Rebounds | ALST32 | AUB43 |
| Assists | ALST2 | AUB17 |
| Turnovers | ALST23 | AUB16 |
| Steals | ALST9 | AUB10 |
| Blocks | ALST1 | AUB6 |
| Points in the paint | ALST16 | AUB30 |
| Fast-break points | ALST8 | AUB12 |
| Fouls | ALST29 | AUB20 |
| Largest lead | ALST3 | AUB49 |
Alabama State Lady Hornets vs Auburn Tigers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ALST | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ALST35 | AUB84 |
| Average win probability | ALST7% | AUB93% |
| Longest scoring run | ALST+3 | AUB+22 |
| Time leading | ALST1:07 | AUB36:48 |
Alabama State Lady Hornets vs Auburn Tigers odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET
Lady Hornets26%
Win chanceTigers74%
SpreadAUB −9.5closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+281away / −281homeaway / home
Line movementAUB win chance, 24 stored lines
+11 pts for AUB between Oct 29 and Nov 2
82%58%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | AUB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:36 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:26 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:46 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:46 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 12:31 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 74% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 77% | +14 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- AUB 1498 · ALST 1425
- Home spread
- −9.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET · 2026-11-03 02:01 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Alabama State Lady Hornets 35, Auburn Tigers 84. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Lady HornetsTigers
Neutrals only–
Lady HornetsTigers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Tigers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Alabama State Lady Hornets vs Auburn Tigers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tigers a 9.5-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Tigers 1517 (152nd of 356), Lady Hornets 1406 (271st). The Tigers are 0-0; the Lady Hornets are 0-0. The Tigers have won 2 of their last 5; the Lady Hornets 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Tigers won 4, the Lady Hornets 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Alabama State Lady Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Auburn Tigers | L 35–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Jaguars | L 56–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | W 72–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Grambling Lady Tigers | W 56–50 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Grambling Lady Tigers | L 50–68 | – | – | matchup |
Auburn Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Alabama State Lady Hornets | W 84–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ole Miss Rebels | L 57–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas A&M Aggies | W 50–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arkansas Razorbacks | L 41–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kentucky Wildcats | L 56–63 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama State Lady Hornets at Auburn Tigers | 41–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| Alabama State Lady Hornets at Auburn Tigers | 40–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| Alabama State Lady Hornets at Auburn Tigers | 37–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| Alabama State Lady Hornets at Auburn Tigers | 49–88 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Alabama State Lady Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Auburn Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lady Hornets0-0 2nd · -
- Lady Hornets rating1406 271st of 356, 1 games
- Tigers0-0 7th · -
- Tigers rating1517 152nd of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 2nd · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ALSTWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ALSTWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ALSTWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ALSTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama State Lady Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Auburn Tigers 0-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $AUBWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $AUBWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $AUBWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $AUBWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Auburn Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Alabama State Lady Hornets at Auburn Tigers
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