Women's soccer tonight: North Carolina Courage 1, Denver Summit FC 0, final. The model had the home side at 42 percent before kickoff and there are no crowd picks to weigh against it, so the result stands alone.
NWSL · · WakeMed Soccer Park · every National Women's Soccer League line
Denver Summit FC vs North Carolina Courage: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreDenver Summit FC 0, North Carolina Courage 1 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerNorth Carolina Courage 42%
- Pregame Projected scoreNorth Carolina Courage 2.0, Denver Summit FC 1.5
- Model spreadNorth Carolina Courage −0.5 total 3.5
- Margin1 projected 0.5
- Total1 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Denver Summit FC or North Carolina Courage: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 35–42Market –
FinalPregame: NC 54%Baseline: NC 52.4% (−1.2)Big swing: 49.7 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NC | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
DEN 48.6%NC 51.4%
Denver Summit FC at North Carolina Courage win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to NC+48.7 points for NC over the last 10:00
Big swing49.7 ptstoward NC at 90:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineNC 52.4%game average, −1.2 points from the pregame 53.7%
Denver Summit FC vs North Carolina Courage live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | DEN | NC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | DEN48.6% | NC51.4% |
| Shots | DEN12 | NC13 |
| Shots on target | DEN4 | NC5 |
| Corners | DEN3 | NC6 |
| Passes completed | DEN357/444 | NC394/471 |
| Saves | DEN5 | NC4 |
| Fouls | DEN7 | NC9 |
| Offsides | DEN1 | NC5 |
| Yellow cards | DEN2 | NC0 |
| Red cards | DEN0 | NC0 |
Denver Summit FC vs North Carolina Courage team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | DEN | NC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DEN0 | NC1 |
| Average win probability | DEN48% | NC52% |
| Longest scoring run | DEN+0 | NC+1 |
| Time leading | DEN0:00 | NC0:00 |
Denver Summit FC vs North Carolina Courage odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET
Denver Summit FC35%
Win chanceNorth Carolina Courage42%
SpreadNC −0.5closing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+189away / +326draw / +138homeaway / draw / home
Line movementNC win chance, 8 stored lines
+4 pts for NC between Oct 29 and Nov 1
47%32%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | NC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 42% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 7:59 AM ET | 40% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:02 AM ET | 38% | — |
- Ratings
- NC 1495 · DEN 1500
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET · 2026-11-02 00:01 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Denver Summit FC 0, North Carolina Courage 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Women's Soccer League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Denver Summit FCNorth Carolina Courage
Neutrals only–
Denver Summit FCNorth Carolina Courage
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, North Carolina Courage–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Denver Summit FC vs North Carolina Courage prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the North Carolina Courage a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 42% chance to win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: North Carolina Courage 1503 (8th of 16), Denver Summit FC 1492 (9th). The North Carolina Courage are 13-13-3; the Denver Summit FC are 11-10-8. The North Carolina Courage have won 2 of their last 5; the Denver Summit FC 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the North Carolina Courage won 1, the Denver Summit FC 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Denver Summit FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at North Carolina Courage | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Racing Louisville FC | W 6–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Angel City FC | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Stars FC | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas City Current | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup |
North Carolina Courage
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Denver Summit FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Portland Thorns FC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego Wave FC | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Reign FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Royals | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Courage at Denver Summit FC | 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Denver Summit FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Carolina Courage: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Denver Summit FC11-10-8 10th
- Denver Summit FC rating1492 9th of 16, 30 games
- North Carolina Courage13-13-3 9th
- North Carolina Courage rating1503 8th of 16, 30 games
Denver Summit FC 11-10-8
National Women's Soccer League · 10th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SUMMIT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SUMMIT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SUMMIT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SUMMIT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Denver Summit FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
North Carolina Courage 13-13-3
National Women's Soccer League · 9th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $COURAGE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $COURAGE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $COURAGE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $COURAGE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Courage bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Denver Summit FC at North Carolina Courage
Sign in to post a take on $SUMMITCOURAGE261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Denver Summit FC 0, North Carolina Courage 1. Bandwagon's model had the North Carolina Courage at 42% and projected North Carolina Courage 2.0, Denver Summit FC 1.5; spread North Carolina Courage −0.5, total 3.5.