Kaapo Kakko gets a Flames defense that has tightened for the Kraken

The Calgary Flames arrive at Climate Pledge Arena on Wednesday, November 4, at 10:00 PM EST, and their defense has been better than the league's. Over their last 5 games they have allowed 2.8 goals a game. The league average is 3.2. That gap is modest, not a wall, and it comes with a detail that matters: the Flames have 0 days of rest. They are 6-8 on the season. For the Seattle Kraken, who are at home, this is a game against a team that has been stingy lately but is playing on tired legs. The player to watch is a right wing who rarely gets mentioned.

Kaapo Kakko is a right wing who wears 84. He is 25 years old and in his 7th season in the league, having debuted in 2019. He was drafted in round 1, pick 2 in 2019, and his route before that ran through Turku Vocational Institute. He was born in 2001 in Finland and is listed at 185 centimeters and 98 kilograms. He reached the Kraken by way of that draft history and is now part of their forward group. Players taken that high carry a certain expectation. His current numbers say something more specific than the pick number does.

His share of the team's playing time is 4 percent across 14 games, which ranks 13th among 21 players with data on the Kraken. His average is 14.3 minutes on the ice. The recent movement is upward. Over the last 3 games his share rose to 4.5 percent, from 3.9 percent over the prior 11 games. His minutes a game went from 13.9 to 16, a 15 percent increase in both measures. In the last 5 games he logged 12.6, 13.37, 17.3, 14.17 and 16.42 minutes. The 17.3 on October 24 was the high mark. One game of that is noise. Three games of it is the start of a pattern.

Here the numbers get louder. Kakko scores 3.29 points per 60 minutes. Among 370 forwards, that ranks in the 88th percentile, and the peer median is 1.9. He does it with a usage percentile of 38, so he produces like a top-line player on a middle-tier workload. The last 5 games are cooler: his rate there is 2.44, a drop of 26 percent from the season figure. That is a real dip, and it deserves to be named. It is still well above the median. His last 5 box scores read 0 points, 1, 1, 0 and 1, with 2 shots on October 22 and 1 on October 24.

His role has not changed. That is the data's plain statement, and it fits the shape of the numbers: a steady spot in the lineup, with the minutes creeping up rather than jumping. His season averages are 0.8 points and 0.8 shots a game, and over the last 5 games both sit at 0.6. Those are small counts, and they should be read that way. What stands out is the gap between how much he produces for each minute and how little attention the minutes draw. A defense that has allowed fewer goals than the league average is a reason to look closely at the player whose rate has held above the median.

The expectation is about time, because time is where the trend is clearest. His season average is 14.3 minutes and his last 5 average is 14.8, while the last 3 games ran at 16. Kaapo Kakko should play at least 15 minutes on the ice against the Flames. That clears his season and last-5 averages and sits just below his 3-game pace. The points line is harder to read at 1, since his last-5 average is 0.6. The minutes are the call, and the box score will say whether the recent climb holds against a team that has allowed 2.8 goals a game.