Atalanta and Fiorentina draw in a game the model gave 24 percent
The model gave the draw 24 percent before kickoff, and Atalanta 2, Fiorentina 2 is what Serie A got on October 29.
Serie A ended its round with a draw. Atalanta 2, Fiorentina 2, on October 29, in the last kickoff of a 10-game round. Neither side won and neither lost. The margin was 0, and each club takes a point from it. A draw is a result like any other, and this one sits furthest from what the model expected of the round. The full record of the game is on its matchup page.
The model's last line before kickoff leaned toward the visitors. It gave Atalanta a 51 percent win chance, Fiorentina 25 percent, and the draw 24 percent. Atalanta were the model's favorite, and by a wide gap. Put plainly, the model gave the draw 24 percent, and the draw is what happened. The 51 percent for the away side did not come through, and neither did the 25 percent for the home side.
The table going in looked like the model's line. Atalanta were 12th of 20 teams in the Serie A table, with 11 points from 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses. Fiorentina were 17th of 20 in the table, with 5 points from 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses. That is a gap of 6 points between the two sides, and 5 places. A club in the middle of the league met a club near the bottom of it. The model leaned toward the middle, and the table agreed with it.
The last 5 games narrow the gap. Atalanta's last 5 read TLWLL, a draw, a loss, a win and two losses, for 4 points. Fiorentina's last 5 read LLLTW, three losses, a draw and a win, for 4 points. The 2 sides made the same 4 points over the same 5 games. The shapes differ. Fiorentina arrived with a draw and a win at the end of their run, Atalanta with two losses at the end of theirs. Over that window, the form gave the model's 51 percent for Atalanta little support.
So the draw fits the form better than it fits the model. The model leaned on the table, where 6 points and 5 places separate the clubs. The last 5 games leaned the other way, with 4 points each. The game landed between the two readings and split them evenly, 2 goals for each team and 1 point for each. Serie A has 20 teams, and Fiorentina stay in the lower end of them at 17th. Atalanta stay 12th. One draw does not settle which reading was closer, but it was the outcome the model rated least likely of the three, at 24 percent.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Written from the numbers listed below. Reviewed by Paul Koziol, editor. Corrections are shown on the piece. Editorial policy.