Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Fresno State Bulldogs prediction, odds and picks, November 14, 2026
- Projected winnerFresno State 71%
- Projected scoreFresno State 70, Northern Arizona 61
- Model spreadFresno State −8.5 total 130.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks or Fresno State Bulldogs: the bandwagon
Axle 29–71Market –
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Fresno State Bulldogs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Fresno State Bulldogs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Fresno State Bulldogs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NAU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NAU– | FRES– |
| Average win probability | NAU– | FRES– |
| Longest scoring run | NAU– | FRES– |
| Time leading | NAU– | FRES– |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Fresno State Bulldogs odds
Every stored line
| Stored | FRES win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:58 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:58 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:46 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:11 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 71% | — |
- Ratings
- FRES 1473 · NAU 1422
- Home spread
- −8.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Fresno State Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 8.5-point favorite at home, with a 71% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Bulldogs 1473 (203rd of 356), Lumberjacks 1422 (255th). The Bulldogs are 0-0; the Lumberjacks are 0-0. The Bulldogs have won 1 of their last 5; the Lumberjacks 0 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bulldogs won 2, the Lumberjacks 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Montana Lady Griz | L 60–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Montana State Bobcats | L 48–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eastern Washington Eagles | L 61–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Idaho Vandals | L 57–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Colorado Bears | L 53–81 | – | – | matchup |
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UNLV Lady Rebels | L 65–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nevada Wolf Pack | W 74–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | L 64–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UNLV Lady Rebels | L 54–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Grand Canyon Lopes | L 42–57 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Fresno State Bulldogs | 55–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Fresno State Bulldogs | 63–68 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Fresno State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lumberjacks0-0 7th · -
- Lumberjacks rating1422 255th of 356, 0 games
- Bulldogs0-0 3rd · -
- Bulldogs rating1473 203rd of 356, 0 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak -
No stances yet today on $NAUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 3rd · streak -
No stances yet today on $FRESWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fresno State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Fresno State Bulldogs
Sign in to post a take on $NAUWBBFRESWBB261114: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Fresno State 71% to win. Projected score Fresno State 70, Northern Arizona 61; spread Fresno State −8.5, total 130.5. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Fresno State Bulldogs, Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET.