Cedric Mullins sees his share of Tampa Bay Rays playing time drop by 69 percent

Cedric Mullins is a center fielder for the Tampa Bay Rays, wears jersey 31, and is 32 years old. He was taken in round 13, pick 403, of the 2015 draft out of Campbell, made his debut in 2018, and has 8 seasons in the league behind him. He is not a name that draws much of a crowd, and the box scores are the only place to read him.

His share of the team's playing time was 4.8 percent across the 144 games before this stretch. Over his last 3 games it is 1.5 percent, a drop of 69 percent. The plate appearances tell the same story: he averaged 3.6 a game before and has averaged 1 a game since, a fall of 72 percent. Over the full season the data holds 147 games for him out of 198 for the club, with an average of 3.5 plate appearances. That put him 38th of 88 in team playing time, so he was a regular piece of the lineup until very recently. A short run proves little on its own, and I would not hang a season on 3 games. But the size of the move is hard to wave off.

The role has changed more sharply than the share. He started 132 of the 144 games before this stretch, and he started 0 of his last 3. That is a player who had been in the opening group nearly every day and has now been out of it each time. The data gives no reason for the change, and I will not offer one. It records the move and nothing more. His last 5 appearances show the pattern in miniature, with 4 plate appearances and 1 hit on September 27, then 2 plate appearances and no hits on October 7, then single plate appearances on October 12, October 17 and October 26, which produced a hit, no hit and a hit.

Measured against 763 other batters in his peer group, his production is a shade below the middle. He reaches base 0.287 times per plate appearance, against a peer median of 0.3, which places him in the 36th percentile. His playing time ranked in the 70th percentile of that same group. So the club leaned on him for time more than his on-base numbers alone would have asked for, and the recent cut sits beside a bat that has been slightly under the median. That is a plain pairing, and it should not be read as more than that.

Tomorrow is the test of whether the drop holds. The Rays visit the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday, October 31, at 8:00 PM EDT at American Family Field. The Brewers are 103-59 and come in with 1 day of rest. The thing to watch is their pitching. Milwaukee has allowed 2.4 runs a game over its last 5, against a league average of 4.5. Runs will be hard to find, and a lineup facing that kind of staff may look different from the one that played earlier in the year. If Mullins is in the starting group again, the trend has paused. If he is not, it has another data point.

My expectation is modest. Cedric Mullins will get at least 2 plate appearances tomorrow. His average over the last 5 games is 1.8, so 2 is a small step above the recent line and well below his season average of 3.5. If he reaches it, the role is steadier than the last 3 games suggest. If he does not, the smaller share is the real one.